Drones have left an indelible mark on the Ukraine war, unlike any other conflict, as they range from small quadcopters equipped with cameras and grenades hovering over front-line trenches to aerial bombs carrying warheads weighing several dozen kilograms (pounds) into Kyiv and Moscow.
Over the past few months, Kyiv and other major cities have faced a series of attacks from Russian forces, who have deployed Iranian-manufactured Shahed "kamikaze" drones. In response, Ukraine has also carried out unmanned assaults in Crimea and the Russian border region of Belgorod.
On Tuesday, the Russian government went as far as accusing Ukraine of launching an attack on Moscow using these very devices.
The current image starkly contrasts with the excessive excitement that once surrounded the Turkish-manufactured Bayraktar TB2 drones during the initial stages of the conflict.
The aircraft garnered significant attention and received accolades in music for their contribution in dismantling Moscow's armored columns and the flagship of the Black Sea fleet, the Moskva.
However, the ongoing conflict has rendered these models, referred to as MALE (Medium Altitude, Long Endurance), obsolete.
According to an anonymous source from the European defense industry, the front line has now reached a state of stability and has become impervious due to the deployment of Russian defense systems to counter airborne attacks, as reported by AFP.
The drone war has now transformed into a battle of statistics.
According to a senior French military source, the majority of suicide drones are intercepted by air defenses, which are strategically employed to compel the defenders to engage their missiles and deplete their reserves.
“You also create terror and uncertainty at all times. Over the long term, that has value,” the source added.
It is crucial for Russia to degrade enemy air defense systems at a low cost, as highlighted by analysts Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds from the British defense think-tank RUSI in a recent report. Russia's production of long-range missiles is currently limited to approximately 40 per month.
According to reports, the air force of Moscow deploys a significant number of aircraft to expand the range of potential threats and to detect vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian air defense system. This strategy aims to identify areas where conventional missiles could penetrate.
According to the European industrial source, Kyiv utilizes commercially available Chinese propeller-powered drones or old Soviet jet-powered reconnaissance drones to carry out attacks deep within Russian territory.
– Front lines –
Most drones in use are compact models deployed for reconnaissance and offensive operations on the battlefield.
Ukrainian forces have shared numerous videos on various social media platforms depicting altered commercially accessible drones releasing explosives on Russian troops' locations.
It is common to find between 25 and 50 UAVs from each side on a 10-kilometre front line, as stated by RUSI's Watling and Reynolds.
Ukrainian Furia and Russian Eleron-3 drones are designed for specific purposes and can cover distances of up to 50 kilometers. In contrast, commercially modified quadcopters, often purchased through crowdfunding, have a limited range of less than 10 kilometers.
The deployment of electronic defenses by both sides has been prompted by the swarms, resulting in a reduction in the cost of countering inexpensive devices that are not worth shooting down with expensive missiles.
According to RUSI, the Russian forces currently utilize around one significant electronic warfare system for every 10 kilometers of frontage. Furthermore, there are additional, more specialized electronic warfare capabilities that are deployed higher up in the chain of command.
The senior French officer expressed that the Russians have intensified their electronic warfare tactics, signifying a significant shift in their approach.
Russian platoons are now outfitted with anti-drone weapons, as stated by RUSI, which include directional jammers and arrays designed to hijack UAVs drone jammer.
Anti-drone “rifles” that emit jamming signals are “the absolute basics of defence, what really works are non-portable jammers deployed close to the front line”, the European industry source said signal jammer.
However, these "large spheres mounted on tripods with generators" are easily identifiable and have a short lifespan, according to their statement.
– High attrition –
The French officer described drone and anti-drone warfare as a modern iteration of combined arms combat.
Similar to the presence of infantry, cavalry, and artillery, we also possess drones, electronic warfare, and connectivity.
The officer emphasized that due to the extensive efforts made to destroy them, the majority of small drones will not remain airborne for more than four to six instances before being intercepted and shot down.
Ukraine has claimed that they are experiencing a significant loss of approximately 10,000 drones every month across their extensive range of devices. However, the accuracy of this figure cannot be confirmed, and it is speculated that this statement may be an attempt to secure additional aid from Western nations.
In the event of breakthroughs and counter-offensives leading to the resurgence of quickly changing front lines, drones will continue to be significant.
Ukraine has the potential to employ drones in eliminating Russian defensive obstacles during its anticipated summer offensive, such as utilizing them to deliver explosives into a minefield, effectively creating a passage, as suggested by Vikram Mittal, a faculty member at the US military institution West Point, in an article for Forbes.
In situations where fast-moving troops become isolated, drones could provide a solution for delivering essential supplies like ammunition to ensure their operations can carry on.